A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook
South Korea’s chip-heavy KOSPI made an unconvincing attempt at a bounce on Wednesday after notching the fifth-biggest selloff in its history a day earlier.
According to BNY, there are signs that the retail-investor buying which has driven the index to record after record is starting to flag, particularly after the regulator suddenly sounded cool on popular leveraged ETF products.
The market climbed in morning trade but was flat before lunchtime in Seoul, where for months downtown has been awash with workers hunched over phones, trading stocks. Meanwhile in Taipei, chipmaking giant TSMC was falling.
An earnings report, after the U.S. close, from Micron will be the next guide for mood and direction in the sector and focus is on whether the chipmaker announces long-term supply deals and upfront payments from big customers.
The threshold for disappointment could be pretty low, with positioning stretched. Bank of America’s June survey of fund managers found 80% think long semiconductors is the most crowded trade, a record reading.
The same survey showed more than half of respondents think now is the “boom” phase of the investment cycle in artificial intelligence and not yet the euphoria or profit-taking, displacement or panic stages of a bursting asset-price bubble.
INDONESIA STAYS AS EM, UNDER MSCI REVIEW
Index provider MSCI left Indonesia in the purgatory of its review of market classification, saying investors are waiting to see whether reforms on free float and ownership disclosure deliver a more liquid and transparent market.
The outcome had stocks wobbly in Jakarta.
Germany’s Ifo survey of business conditions is due later in the day, with slight improvement expected. The euro, however, remains under pressure from a U.S. dollar that is supported by pricing for several central bank interest rate hikes this year.
The yen held at 160.56 in Asia as this week’s online discussion between Minister of Finance Satsuki Katayama and U.S. counterpart Scott Bessent had investors leery of possible joint intervention to support the Japanese currency.
Japan plans to examine ways to improve management of its $1.3 trillion foreign exchange reserves, according to a draft report reviewed by Reuters on Wednesday, a war chest which at the moment is believed to be mainly held as U.S. Treasuries.
Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:
• Economics: German Ifo survey
• Earnings: Micron
(By Tom Westbrook; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
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