House Republicans are dealing with the possibility that they could lose their majority next week and be launched into a divisive leadership race.
Speaker Mike Johnson recently signaled he could stay on as GOP leader in the minority. But interviews with three dozen GOP lawmakers and senior Republican aides reveal most are skeptical Johnson runs in that scenario. They’re keeping a close eye on two potential alternatives: Jim Jordan and Steve Scalise.
The two men are being careful not to acknowledge any jockeying in the final lead-up to the midterms, but many Republicans expect the contest to show up in plain view after Tuesday. Candidates only have until Nov. 6 to declare their intentions to run in the Nov. 10 GOP leader elections.
Scalise, after spending nearly eight years as the No. 2 House Republican, has raised scads of money and built back-slapping relationships with a broad cross-section of members.
While Jordan and Scalise are being most closely watched for the No. 1 post, some believe Rep. Tom Emmer could emerge as a candidate if others fail, as could Texas Rep. August Pfluger. Many will also be keeping eyes on President Donald Trump, who has yet to weigh in on the post-election GOP leadership picture.
Still, many, though not all, predict that a Republican midterm wipeout could leave members reluctant to elevate a member of the existing leadership structure and instead choose a known face of the conservative insurgency.
“It’s Jordan’s race to lose,” said a House Republican granted anonymity to speak candidly about the as-yet-unofficial race. “I think it’s his time.”
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