By Helen Coster
NEW YORK, Sept 17 (Reuters) – High gas prices and the rising cost of living had already made affordability a defining issue in this year’s midterm elections. Then President Donald Trump escalated his trade war with Canada.
Now, Republican candidates in northern border states most affected by the tariffs are trying to strike a balance between appealing to Trump’s loyal base and reaching independent voters that polls show have soured on his handling of the economy and his fight with Canada.
The economies of Michigan and Maine have long been intertwined with Canada’s, covering everything from auto parts to lumber to fruit-picking equipment. That has raised the stakes in two states that Republicans will likely need to win in the November 3 elections if they are to hold the US Senate – and their respective candidates have taken notably different approaches with voters, each with its own political risks.
The Senate races in both Michigan and Maine are considered toss-ups by the Cook Political Report.
U.S. Senator Susan Collins of Maine is breaking with Trump, criticizing the tit-for-tat exchange of tariffs and seeking carveouts for affected industries. Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers, by contrast, has criticized Canada and made the case that his close relationship with the president will help blunt the impact of the trade war.
Because the Canadian tariffs emerged so recently, candidates have largely been left to devise their own responses mid-campaign, said David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College.
And both will “need to move beyond the Republican coalition” to win their races, he said. “When something unpopular happens at the behest of your own party leader, it puts you in that very awkward place.”
The National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Senate candidates, has not taken a public stance on the Canadian tariffs and did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
‘POLITICAL PRESSURE’
The United States imposed 50% tariffs on some $20 billion of Canadian goods last month, accusing its northern neighbor of unfair trade practices. Canada’s own retaliatory tariffs – ranging from 15% to 50% on $20 billion of U.S. goods – took effect on September 8.
Canadian officials have made no secret of the fact that their levies were designed with politics in mind.
“We’re being wise and strategic to put political pressure,” Canada’s Minister of Industry Melanie Joly said in August.
Americans are about four times as likely to blame the current trade dispute on Washington rather than Ottawa, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll conducted late last month. Only 20% of respondents supported higher tariffs on Canadian goods.
Such figures have cleared the way for Collins to declare Trump’s trade war with Canada a “mistake.” A moderate Republican representing a state that prides itself on political independence, Collins has a history of challenging party orthodoxy on issues including healthcare, abortion and gun control.
Now locked in a close race against Democrat Troy Jackson, she is again trying to distance herself from a president whose popularity has sunk to record lows.
Canada is Maine’s biggest trading partner, accounting for 69% of imports and 41% of exports in 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. More than 80% of the state’s heating oil and gasoline is imported from Canada, and its three most iconic products – wild blueberries, lobsters and lumber – all depend heavily on cross-border trade.
Collins has voted four times to oppose Trump’s tariffs, and on August 28 wrote to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer outlining the economic impact on her state.
In her letter, she focused on road salt and cement – products that the administration subsequently exempted from the tariffs.
Jackson responded with sarcasm. “I mean, yeah, thank you for the road salt,” he told reporters at a recent campaign event. “What has she done to stand up, to get Trump to back off of parts coming in from Canada, fertilizer coming in from Canada for farmers?”
TARIFF DAMAGE
In Michigan, which exports more than almost any other state to Canada, analysts say the tariffs could be especially damaging to the struggling wood products sector, particularly kitchen cabinet makers.
Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers has said Trump “is right to put America First – and tariffs are necessary, but are not a one-size-fits-all solution.”
He has also presented his closeness with the president as a strength rather than a liability.
“You can send somebody back [to Washington] who gets up every day and tries to gouge the president’s eyes out or you can send somebody back who’s going to walk in and say, ‘Hey, can we work on this part of the trade deal,"” he said.
Rogers’ Democratic rival, Abdul El-Sayed, has tried to make light of his political predicament.
“He’s caught between knowing full well that these tariffs are bad for Michiganders and having to appeal to Daddy Trump every single time he opens his mouth,” El-Sayed told CNN.
Spokespeople for Collins and Rogers declined to comment for this story.
In a statement, White House spokesperson Kush Desai said “President Trump will never waver from putting Americans and America First, whether in trade negotiations or through an economic agenda of tax cuts and deregulation.”
Even though presidents have limited control over economic growth, Hopkins said, tariffs give people who are dissatisfied with their financial situation another reason to blame Trump and his fellow Republicans.
“It’s sort of easy to tell a story of what it is that Trump has done to make things less affordable,” he said.
(Reporting by Helen Coster in New York. additional reporting by Andy Sullivan in Washington; Editing by Jesse Mesner-Hage and Deepa Babington)
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