By Gram Slattery and Nathan Layne
WASHINGTON, June 15 (Reuters) – The Trump administration and Iran’s leadership agreed on Sunday to terms to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a development that has delivered significant relief to global markets.
But while the accord is an opportunity for U.S. President Donald Trump to exit a conflict that has proven consistently unpopular with the American public, it also exposes him to criticism from within his party, skepticism from allies and questions over whether the deal will hold.
THE KNIVES COME OUT AMONG REPUBLICANS
By Monday, some Iran “hawks” within the Republican Party were trashing the agreement, describing it as a tactical catastrophe.
“Trump has surrendered to Iran,” conservative influencer Erick Erickson wrote on X.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally who advocated for the war, said in a Sunday X post he was “somewhat concerned” that Iran’s description of the preliminary agreement was different from the White House’s description.
Vice President JD Vance, one of the president’s least hawkish aides, pushed back against early criticisms. In an interview with ABC on Monday, he played down the possibility that Iran will immediately receive some of its frozen assets, saying it would only receive those funds if Tehran reaches certain benchmarks related to its nuclear program.
While Republicans have navigated deep splits between isolationists and interventionists for years, another flare-up before the November midterm elections when Republicans will try to defend narrow majorities in the House of Representatives and Senate could create an image of a party in disarray.
FOR AMERICAN CONSUMERS, IT MIGHT BE TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE
Gas prices are expected to fall but will remain above pre-war levels for some time, analysts say, meaning voters are still likely to face pain at the pump as the elections approach.
The strait, through which about 20% of the world’s oil flows, is not scheduled to fully open until Friday. Even then, it will take weeks or even months for oil flows to return to normal levels, with supply further constrained as Gulf nations ramp up production and repair damaged infrastructure.
“Full pre-conflict traffic volume is realistically a 2027 story,” said David Jorbenaze, global oil market leader at ICIS, a market intelligence provider.
That lag could blunt any political benefit for Trump and Republicans, particularly as voters remain focused on cost-of-living pressures. As of early June, some 70% of Americans disapproved of how Trump was handling those concerns.
COMPARISONS WITH OBAMA’S DEAL ARE INEVITABLE
One of Trump’s most oft-stated positions with respect to Iran is that the U.S.’s last deal with the Islamic Republic, known as the JCPOA, was a disaster.
Trump has frequently noted with derision that the administration of Democratic President Barack Obama sent pallets of cash to Tehran, a move that was intended to settle a long-running financial dispute, while facilitating the accord.
Now that Trump is negotiating a nuclear deal, he risks opening himself up to Democratic attacks if a final deal is not clearly better than the JCPOA.
With details of the current agreement unclear, direct comparison is difficult. But Trump has been privately concerned about making sure his deal is seen as better than Obama’s, advisers have said.
A key concern among skeptical conservatives is whether – and to what extent – the U.S. will allow Iran access to its frozen assets.
IT ISN’T OVER UNTIL IT’S OVER
Another significant risk: The fighting could flare again, causing energy prices to shoot back up just as voters turn their attention to the midterms.
Israeli leaders are privately fuming, seeing the initial agreement as a form of capitulation right when Israel and Washington had Tehran on the ropes. Some hardliners in Tehran are also unhappy, believing leaders there should have held out longer.
On Sunday, Israel bombed southern Lebanon, a move that upset Trump and appeared to delay the agreement, if only by a few hours. On Monday, Israel killed one person in another strike in Lebanon, illustrating that the conflict remains active.
STRAINED ALLIANCES
The war – and its resolution – have tested Washington’s alliances in various ways.
Israeli officials will struggle to sell the deal to their own voters, said Jonathan Rynhold, a political scientist at Bar-Ilan University, near Tel Aviv. He added that the best-case political scenario for the Israeli government is that talks with Iran quickly collapse and conflict resumes.
Relations between Trump and European leaders have also fallen to a new low, with the president criticising NATO countries for failing to join the U.S.-Israeli war effort. Trump is currently in France for the annual G7 summit, where those tensions could come to the fore.
Leaders in Muscat were shocked earlier this month when Trump threatened to bomb Oman for allegedly scheming to set up a toll system with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.
In the Gulf, several allies – having been hit by Iranian drone and missile strikes – are now more aware than ever of the downsides of hosting U.S. security architecture in the region.
While it is difficult to draw firm conclusions about the long-term geopolitical effects of the conflict, the U.S. has spent significant diplomatic and political capital in recent months and, in some cases, upset longtime allies.
THE DEAL COULD FALL APART
The interim deal essentially pushed the most difficult issues down the road. Notably, as of Monday, there was no clarity as to what will happen with Iran’s nuclear program, and both sides have different versions regarding what has been agreed to so far.
Tehran and Washington now have 60 days to reach a more comprehensive deal, a monumental task given that the two countries have been at loggerheads over Tehran’s nuclear program for decades.
Trump has said he may resume attacks if a deal is not reached, a move that would almost certainly upset voters, who never liked the war in the first place, according to public opinion surveys. Still, if Trump defies the odds and seals a substantive agreement with Iran, it could hand Republicans a political win.
The Iranians’ “record of keeping their word is abysmal, so one of the questions is when does this thing blow up,” said Charlie Gerow, a Pennsylvania-based Republican strategist.
“If Trump, through other means, is able to keep it together, I think it’s going to be very positive for him and his administration.”
(Reporting by Gram Slattery and Nathan Layne; Editing by Colleen Jenkins and Sanjeev Miglani)
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